A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
