Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
